Quarterly GDP of the EspÍrto Santo grows 2.5% and above the national average

The Institute Jones dos Santos Neves (IJSN) announced, on 04 February 2010, the indicator of gross domestic product (GDP) Quarterly Espírito Santo, with corresponding estimates for third quarter 2009. The data demonstrate that the State has shown a clear pattern of growth (positive rates of 2.5% in the last two quarters), indicating a recovery of the local economy growing. The study was published by CEO IJSN, Ana Paula Vescovi and the coordinator for Economic Studies, Matheus Magalhaes.

The study shows that where comparisons longer related to the year 2008, there were negative changes of -3.8% compared to the third quarter of 2009 with the same period last year, and -7.4%, when comparing January-September 2009 with January-September 2008. It is worth noting that the rates of decline reported in the State has decreased over time, which enhances the recovery analysis of the state economy.

Another relevant indicator in this context concerns the nominal GDP. In 2009, nominal GDP estimated for the Espírito Santo, until the third quarter was BRL 51.4 billion, and just this quarter, the amount grew BRL 18.0 billion. This result indicates an increase in wealth generated in the state as a whole. Nominal GDP can be viewed as an aggregate measure of the wealth generated in the state, when considering price and quantity of goods produced here together.

Compared to the Brazilian economy, the recovery of the state appeared more intense than the national average (1.2%) and shows sustained in the second and third quarters of 2009, when the Espírito Santo grew 2.5%. Also according to the study, since 2005, the indicator of quarterly GDP of the Holy Spirit has shown superior results to that obtained for the country, even with the adverse impacts of the global crisis.

Moreover, these results show that the behavior of the GDP of the Espírito Santo has larger variations than those recorded for Brazil. This is because in periods of economic expansion, the state is growing higher than that recorded for the country the other hand, in periods of recession, the local economy tends to suffer contractions in their activity level, much higher than those recorded for Brazil .

During disclosure, the CEO of IJSN, Ana Paula Vescovi, he explained, based on simulations, the possible trajectories of the quarterly GDP for the coming months. According to Ana Paula, if the local economy grow 0% in the coming quarters, the growth rate of GDP in 2009 compared with 2008 would be -3.6%. If the economy grows at a rate of 1.5% (equivalent to the average growth recorded for the whole period), there occurred a contraction of -3.25% in the economy, the comparison between 2008 and 2009. Assuming that the state economy grew at a rate equivalent to that registered in the last two quarters (+2.5%), the year 2009 registered a decline of -3% over the previous year.

To Ana Paula, these results are important in order to describe the alternative scenarios of economic growth of the Espírito Santo in the near future.